The Cycle Isn’t Over: Why the Data Still Points to More Upside Ahead

Let’s be real — it’s been brutal out there.
Another week of red candles, collapsing altcoins, and enough FUD to make even the most diamond-handed investor want to dump their bags and buy gold at the top. Every Trump tweet rattles markets, sentiment is in the gutter, and “crypto is dead” is trending again.

But before you rage-quit crypto and switch to dividend stocks, it’s worth hitting pause. Because beneath all the noise and panic, the macro data tells a completely different story — one that suggests we might be far closer to the middle of this bull cycle than the end.

Everything Says Higher For Crypto & Stocks

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1. The ISM and the Macro Pulse

Let’s start with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI, one of the most reliable gauges of economic momentum.
A reading above 50 signals expansion; below 50 means contraction. As of September, the ISM Manufacturing PMI sits at 49.1 — slightly contracting, but nowhere near recession territory.

Here’s the kicker: markets historically peak when the ISM reaches 60–65, not when it’s below 50.
We’re miles from those “overheating” levels that mark true tops. In plain English — the economy isn’t done expanding yet.

Julian Patel from Global Macro Investor shared data showing that the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) — a metric that tracks early economic turning points — is near 100% and trending higher, not collapsing. During past recessions, this figure plunged below 20%. That’s not happening now.

So while headlines scream “recession,” the indicators whisper “reacceleration.”

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2. Central Banks Are Pivoting — Slowly

Another revealing metric: the percentage of central banks cutting interest rates.
Historically, recessions begin when fewer than half of global central banks are easing.
Today, nearly 100% are cutting or signaling cuts.

That means global liquidity — the lifeblood of crypto — is starting to return.
It’s not here yet in full force, but the tide is shifting, and when it does, it’s going to lift every asset that thrives on cheap capital — especially Bitcoin and altcoins.

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3. The Business Cycle Has Room to Run

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, points out that this bull market just turned three years old. Since World War II, the average bull run lasts five years, delivering roughly 191% gains on average.
This one? Up only about 90% so far.

If history rhymes, we’re barely halfway through the cycle.

JP Morgan echoes this view — projecting that markets may need another 50%+ rally to return to “fair value” against interest rate levels. In other words: the expansion isn’t done.

As Detrick puts it, “Bull markets are like cruise ships — once they get moving, they’re hard to slow down and even harder to turn around.”

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4. The Secular Supercycle: A 20-Year View

Zoom out even further, and you see an even bigger trend — the secular cycle.
These massive 10–30 year expansions encompass multiple bull and bear runs but maintain a long-term upward slope. Fidelity’s data shows the average secular bull lasts 21 years.

The current secular bull began around 2009 (after the financial crisis) or 2013 (the post-QE recovery). Either way, that projects strength through roughly 2030–2034 — perfectly aligning with forecasts from major analysts like Christian Chavoy, who sees the S&P 500 peaking around 2032–2034.

That timeline also overlaps the next Bitcoin halving cycle, reinforcing the theory that this crypto bull run could extend well into the next decade.

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5. Near-Term Outlook: Patience Over Panic

So what about right now?
Yes, the crypto market’s been rough, but the underlying economy isn’t collapsing:

• GDP growth (Atlanta Fed Nowcast): tracking at a healthy 3.8%.

• Auto sales: up from 16.1 M to 16.4 M units in September.

• Consumer spending: rose 0.6% in Q2 — people are still buying cars, electronics, and yes, even meme coins.

That’s not the profile of an economy in freefall. It’s one grinding through a mid-cycle reset — the kind that shakes out weak hands before the next leg up.

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6. The Psychology of the Pain Trade

It doesn’t feel bullish. That’s the point.
Every bull market “climbs a wall of worry.”

The current wall is built from fear of inflation, political chaos, and fatigue from sideways markets. But those who give up now — selling in disgust — are often the ones who miss the strongest rallies that follow.

Historically, the best gains occur when sentiment is at its lowest. And right now, social media sentiment is scraping the floor.

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7. The Takeaway: The Cycle Is Not Over

When you strip out the noise and look purely at the data, the conclusion is clear:

• The ISM shows the economy still in early-to-mid cycle.

• The OECD CLI and central-bank cuts point to global easing ahead.

• The bull market lifespan suggests at least two more years of upside.

• The secular cycle extends the runway well into the 2030s.

So yes — crypto feels painful now.
But in every cycle, the pain precedes the profit.
Zoom out, breathe, and remember: markets reward patience, not panic.

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🧠 Key Takeaways

• The ISM and OECD data show recovery, not recession.

• Central banks globally are cutting rates — liquidity is coming back.

• Historical bull-market data suggests this rally is only halfway done.

• Secular trends point to continued growth through 2030+.

• The cycle is not over — it’s just shaking out the impatient.